CPAC Straw Poll Results Unpleasant For Many Conservatives
By now most people have seen the results of the CPAC straw poll for 2010. Congressman Ron Paul came in first place with last year’s winner Mitt Romney coming in 2nd. The rest of the field including Palin, Pawlenty, Pence, Gingrich, and Huckabee. I’ve spoken and read from more than a few conservatives who were dismissive of the results. Do these results indicate anything relevant? Or, is this a case of a misrepresented voter groups within the conservative movement attending CPAC.
Politico reported that,
As the results were displayed on twin large screens in the ballroom — and even before Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio could announce who had won — a cascade of boos came down from a crowd that views Paul and his fervent supporters as irritants. Paul’s backers responded with cheers, though, when their candidate was then proclaimed by Fabrizio as the winner.
A spokesman for the conference rushed over to reporters after the announcement to make sure they had heard the unmistakable boos when the screen first showed Paul had won the straw poll.
CPAC 2010 drew more voters than any time in CPAC’s history with 2,395
participants, up from 1,757 in 2009 and 1,558 in 2008. How do we explain Ron Paul’s popularity at CPAC despite many conservative’s grumbling and booing at his success? ” The results are skewed by Paul’s popularity amongst younger voters” say many different talking heads. Yes, 54% of the voters were between the ages of 18-25. That definitely is a major factor as Ron Paul’s popularity among college students has been apparent since his Presidential campaign.
However, according to the polling data, there was actually a smaller percentage of college voters than 2009 when Mitt Romney won the poll. Romney’s percentage of the vote actually increased from 20% to 22% which indicates that Ron Paul either took votes away from Palin, Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Huckabee among others or, a whole lot of Ron Paul’s supporters came to CPAC to see him and represent his views. The general impression around the blogosphere is we should dismiss this straw poll. However to dismiss the poll entirely would be a mistake.
If we look at the other polling data at CPAC we find many interesting things:
- Of the two issues participants found most important were “Reducing the Size of Federal Government” and “Reducing Government Spending” (two issues that are complimentary as one begets the other)
- Cutting Federal Spending was considered the top priority Republicans should consider when it comes to fiscal policy (It was like a tent revival with so many speakers being reborn with the limited government church…again)
- A 37% disapproval rating of Republican members of Congress (No guessing as to how the Paul supporters voted in this one…Is there anybody listening?)
- A 2% favorable rating of Harry Ried and Nancy Pelosi (that’s around 40 people voting who felt really awkward at CPAC according to my embarrassingly low math skills)
- Michael Steele, Chairman of the Republican National Committee won the most unfavorable person at CPAC award with a 44% disapproval rating (it’s all part of his bringing people together plan)
- Jim DeMint has the lowest unfavorable rating making Jim Demint, “Mr. Popular” (DeMint happens to love Ron Paul’s Audit The Fed bill….the irony of it all)
My conclusion from the poll:
- Ron Paul can turn out the most active young conservatives (libertarian leaning) of any potential candidate…period (they aren’t going away)
- Cutting spending and government is clearly the #1 issue for the CPAC attendees with the “war on terror” a distant 3rd (it’s the economy stupid)
- More than half the attendees feel the Republicans will pick up 30-40 seats in 2010 and they may be right (1994 again?)
- There is an small contingent of anti-war/non-interventionists conservatives in the GOP who are becoming quite vocal (sorry neo-cons)
- Ron Paul’s economic message and ideas are taking hold even if his popularity among mainstream Republicans isn’t (60 appearances on FOX News helps)
- There is no clear cut front running candidate for 2012 (as long the leadership in the GOP remains the same this may not change)
Overall, it appears as if reducing the size of federal government and spending are the top concerns for conservatives at CPAC. How future prospective front-runners like Romney and Palin address this could determine their future. If Ron Paul does run in 2012, I would expect an even bigger battle at GOP county and state conventions than 2008 and it certainly got ugly in some places.
Thank you for the thoughtful article. I agree both with your conclusions and agree about the vacuum in leadership of the kind people are looking for — aside from Ron Paul.